EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria
The Mediterranean Basin is classified as one of the hot-spots for climate change, where a significant decrease of precipitation and an increase of temperature are expected. This will most likely lead to a redistribution of water within Mediterranean catchments. However, the scale and magnitude and spatial differences of the impact of climate change on water security across the Mediterranean is still uncertain. Here we present the preliminary results of a systematic review on the impact of climate change on water security in the Mediterranean Basin. In this systematic review we focused on studies performed in the Mediterranean Basin that apply a hydrological model forced by climate model output and report changes in blue and/or green water, i.e. water stored in rivers and reservoirs (e.g. runoff or reservoir storage) and water stored in soils (e.g. groundwater recharge). The variables obtained from the studies include variables related to study area, climate and hydrological models, and model output. Our preliminary results show that the general tendency is a decrease of precipitation and an increase of temperature, which will cause a decrease of projected blue and green water. This will have serious consequences for the potential of irrigated agriculture, industry and household water use in the Mediterranean Basin, which heavily rely on the availability of blue water. But also for rainfed agriculture, where a decrease of green water may force farmers to abandon their land or transform to irrigated agriculture.